May 25, 2007
Round Nine AFL Tips
FREMANTLE v ST KILDA – Subiaco, Friday @ 8:40pm
While Fremantle is yet to recapture the sort of form that resulted in a preliminary final appearance in 2006, the Dockers key forwards in Chris Tarrant and Matthew Pavlich should prove to be the difference against an undermanned St Kilda backline. Dockers by 28 points.
CARLTON v ADELAIDE – Telstra Dome, Saturday @ 2:10pm
Adelaide has had the wood on Carlton in recent times, with the Crows winning six of their last eight clashes against the Blues. Expect the trend to continue, with Adelaide's more experienced midfield and greater options up forward against a Carlton side that relies on Fevola each week to be the difference. Crows by 16 points.
HAWTHORN v WEST COAST – Aurora Stadium, Saturday @ 2:10pm
The loss of Daniel Kerr is a massive blow for the West Coast, but the Eagles should be able to cover his loss with Armstrong in the middle, and the likes of Shannon Hurn to provide some toughness at the stoppages. Aurora Stadium holds no fear for the Eagles, who have won two of their three clashes against Hawthorn at the venue. Eagles by 10 points.
BRISBANE v COLLINGWOOD – GABBA, Saturday @ 7:10pm
Collingwood hasn't won in Brisbane since 1995, and expect that poor record to continue, with the Pies to be exposed for their lack of pace through the middle on the fast track at the Gabba. Lions by 19 points.
RICHMOND v ESSENDON – MCG, Saturday @ 7:10pm
Richmond showed some spirit against Adelaide in round eight, but with the Tigers missing Hughes, Schulz and possibly Richardson, it's hard to see where Richmond will get enough goals from to challenge an Essendon forward line which boasts Matthew Lloyd, Scott Lucas and the fleet of foot Alwyn Davey. Bombers by 26 points.
WESTERN BULLDOGS v SYDNEY – Manuka Oval, Sunday @ 1:10pm
The Swans shut down the Port runners brilliantly last weekend, and expect them to do the same against the Bulldogs, in what will be a hard fought contest. Swans by nine points.
MELBOURNE v KANGAROOS - Sunday, MCG @ 2:10pm
This is a danger game for the resurgent Kangaroos against a Melbourne side that will be bolstered by the return of the likes of Brock McLean and Russell Robertson. How big of an impact this duo have after a long layoff with injury is questionable. Winning form is good form, so the Kangaroos should record their sixth straight win for the first time since 1999. Roos by 15 points.
PORT ADELAIDE v GEELONG - Sunday, AAMI @ 4:40pm
Geelong's interstate record is simply atrocious, with the Cats having won only three of their past 22. The Cats have also only won once at AAMI Stadium since 2000, and you would expect the home ground advantage to again be the difference. Port by 22 points.
Posted by Tony Keen at 11:05 AM | Comments (0)
May 18, 2007
AFL Tips Round Eight
ADELAIDE v RICHMOND – AAMI Stadium, Friday @ 7:40pm
The Tigers were brave in the second half against Port last weekend, but simply didn't have the firepower to match the ladder leaders. The case should be the same this weekend, with the Crows more experienced bodies in the middle and greater number of options up forward to be the difference. Crows by 39 points.
ESSENDON v BRISBANE – Telstra Dome, Saturday @ 2:10pm
Brisbane has had the wood over Essendon in recent times, with the Lions winning nine of the past 11 against the Bombers. Expect the trend to continue, with the Lions superior ruck divison and greater leg speed and class through the middle to be enough to get Brisbane over the line in an engrossing contest. Lions by eight points.
GEELONG v FREMANTLE – Skilled Stadium, Saturday @ 2:10pm
This shapes as being a danger game for Geelong after beating the reigning premiers at home last weekend. But this is a different Geelong side to the one of 2006, and if they can continue to dominate the clearances as they did against the Eagles last weekend, they should have too many options up forward and record a third straight win. Cats by 17 points.
HAWTHORN v ST KILDA – MCG, Saturday @ 7:10pm
St Kilda has won the past four encounters between these two sides by an average of 53 points, and you would expect the Saints with Gehrig and Riewoldt prominent up forward in recent weeks, to have too much firepower for a Hawthorn side that relies on Lance Franklin to kick a bag.Saints by 22 points.
KANGAROOS v CARLTON – Carrara, Saturday @ 7:10pm
The Kangaroos are arguably the form side of the competition having won four matches in a row. Unless Carlton spearhead Brendon Fevola can reproduce his performance from the NAB Cup when he booted eight goals, the Roos should have too many options up forward and more experience through the middle for a young Blues side. Roos by 28 points.
SYDNEY v PORT ADELAIDE – SCG, Sunday @ 1:10pm
Port Adelaide has a good recent record against Sydney, having won two of their past three meetings at the SCG.
But with the likes of Adam Goodes and Peter Everitt due to lift, and the return of Tadhg Kennelly to provide some much needed run off half back, the Swans should be able to snap a two-game losing streak in a dour struggle. Swans by 14 points.
WESTERN BULLDOGS v COLLINGWOOD - Sunday, Telstra Dome @ 2:10pm
The Bulldogs look set to click into top gear after a sluggish start to the season, with Jason Akermanis starting to deliver in Dogs colours, with the former Lion racking up ten posssessions in the last quarter to help get the Dogs over the line against Melbourne.
The Dogs love playing at the Telstra Dome, which suits their running style of play, and their run through the middle could well prove to be the difference in what shapes as being one of the matches of the rounds. Dogs by 13 points.
WEST COAST v MELBOURNE - Sunday, Subiaco @ 4:40pm
The Demons could well be bolstered by the return of Brock McLean in the middle, but with Dean Cox returning to partner Mark Seaby in the ruck, and Daniel Kerr due for a good game after a lean couple of weeks, the Eagles appear to have too much class and will continue the Demons winless start to the season. Eagles by 27 points.
Posted by Tony Keen at 01:49 PM | Comments (0)
May 11, 2007
AFL TIPS Round Seven
KANGAROOS v ESSENDON – Telstra Dome, Friday @ 7:40pm
The Kangaroos have had the wood on Essendon in recent times, having won their past five, and expect that trend to continue, with the Roos hard running, committed brand of football to be too much to bare for a Bombers side all too reliant on Scott Lucas. Roos by 16 points.
COLLINGWOOD v CARLTON - MCG, Saturday @ 2:10pm
This looms as a danger game for the Magpies, who will be without defender James Clement, while there are still doubts over the fitness of Simon Prestigiacomo.
If the likes of Betts, Whitnall, Fisher and co. can step up and provide some support for Fevola, who is playing virtually a lone hand up forward, then the Blues are a genuine chance to snap a three game losing streak.
But with the Magpies expected to dominate the ruck contests, Collingwood should get enough of the football to the likes of Rocca, Didak and co. to kick a winning score. Magpies by 22 points.
PORT ADELAIDE v RICHMOND – AAMI Stadium, Saturday @ 2:40pm
To say Richmond were disappointing against Geelong at the Dome last Sunday would be an understatement, while Port did just enough to get over the line over a gallant Melbourne side.
With Matthew Richardson, Graham Polak and youngster Adam Pattison expected to share the ruck duties against Dean Brogan and Brendon Lade, the Power's class in the middle should come to the fore as Port record a relatively comfortable win. Port by 37 points.
BRISBANE v ADELAIDE – Gabba, Saturday @ 7:15pm
Brisbane are arguably one of the suprise packets along with Port and Hawthorn so far this season, with a 4-2 win-loss record after the first six rounds, while Adelaide have stumbled with consecutive losses to Fremantle and Collingwood at AAMI.
The Crows haven't kicked more than nine goals in the past three weeks, and it's hard to see how they can match the Lions who have Brown and McGrath firing up forward. Lions by 26 points.
ST KILDA v SYDNEY – Telstra Dome, Saturday @ 7:15pm
The loss of Matthew Clarke is a major blow for the Saints, especially up against the dominant ruck duo in the competition.
Sydney rarely drop two in a row, and expect their dominance in the middle, and plethora of options up forward enough to get them over the line in a hard-fought contest. Swans by 16 points.
GEELONG v WEST COAST – Skilled Stadium, Sunday @ 1:10pm
Geelong, referred to by many as flat track bullies after their 157-point demolition of Richmond, face their first real test against the reigning premiers who have been challenged in recent weeks by Richmond and the Western Bulldogs.
The loss of Cox is a blow for the Eagles, but as he showed in round one, Mark Seaby is more than capable of filling the breach.
Perhaps a bigger loss if Paul Chapman for the Cats, and with the likes of Matthew Priddis, Matt Rosa and co. continuing to step up each week, West Coast should have a touch too much class in what should be an engrossing contest. Eagles by 13 points.
WESTERN BULLDOGS v MELBOURNE - Sunday, Telstra Dome @ 2:10pm
The Western Bulldogs were gallant in defeat against the reigning premiers, while the Demons were unlucky not to record their first win in '07, after going down to Port by five points.
Melbourne have won nine of their past 11 agains the Bulldogs, and how big of an impact the trip back from Perth will have on the Dogs runners remains to be seen. But expect the Dogs to have a touch too much class in what will be a closer contest than many pundits expect. Dogs by 19 points.
FREMANTLE v HAWTHORN - Sunday, Subiaco @ 2:40pm
Touted as one of the favourites for this year's flag at the start of the season, the Dockers find themselves in a tenous position after six rounds, with a 2-4 win-loss record.
Lose this one and they can all but kiss a top four berth goodbye.
With so much on the line for the Dockers, in front of their home crowd, they should secure the four points in a tight dour struggle. Dockers by 11 points.
Posted by Tony Keen at 01:09 PM | Comments (0)
May 04, 2007
AFL Tips Round Six
ST KILDA v CARLTON – Telstra Dome, Friday @ 7:40pm
St Kilda has had the wood over Carlton in recent times, having won the past seven, and the past four by an average of 93 points.
However, this Saints side is decimated by injury, with Hudghton, Maguire and Sam Fisher all missing down back.
With Whitnall finding form against Brisbane last Saturday night, Eddie Betts firing and no obvious match-up for Brendon Fevola, the Blues should have too much firepower for an undermanned Saints sie and should get over the line in a hard-fought contest. Blues by 13 points.
ESSENDON v HAWTHORN - MCG, Saturday @ 2:10pm
The loss of skipper Matthew Lloyd is a major blow for the Bombers, who will now rely heavily on spearhead Scott Lucas to kick them to a winning score.
But with Hawthorn still missing Mark Williams, they rely heavily of Lance Franklin, and with the likes of Fletcher and McPhee down back you would expect the Bombers to have the capabilities to restrict the Hawks in what will be a close tussle. Bombers by 15 points.
WEST COAST v WESTERN BULLDOGS - Subiaco, Saturday @ 2:10pm
The Western Bulldogs have been far from impressive in the past fortnight, but have done just enough to secure the four points on both occasions.
The Bulldogs were smashed in the clearances against Hawthorn last Sunday, and with West Coast boasting the most impressive midfield division in the competition, you would expect this to be enough to get them over the line in an entertaining contest. Eagles by 19 points.
KANGAROOS v SYDNEY – Telstra Dome, Saturday @ 7:10pm
The Kangaroos have been rewarded for their early season effort with two straight wins against Brisbane and Geelong, while Sydney responded from their worst defeat this year to thump an undermanned Melbourne side.
This will be the first time these two sides have met at the Telstra Dome, and with Barry Hall firing up forward, and the likes of O'Loughlin, O'Keefe and co. providing marking targets, the Swans should have too much firepower for a brave Roos' side. Swans by 27 points.
ADELAIDE v COLLINGWOOD – AAMI Stadium, Saturday @ 7:10pm
Collingwood likes playing at AAMI Stadium, and you would expect this clash to be a dour affair, as has been the case with the Crows so far this year.
This match shapes as being the closest contest of the round, with both sides in pretty good form, but the home crowd advantage should be enough to get Adelaide the four points in a dour struggle. Crows by 7 points.
BRISBANE v FREMANTLE – Gabba, Sunday @ 1:10pm
Fremantle has never won at the Gabba in six attempts, with Tarrant and Pavlich already working together beautifully up forward, the Lions inexperienced back line could be exposed, and they should be enough to secure the Dockers their first ever win in Brisbane. Dockers by 18 points.
MELBOURNE v PORT ADELAIDE - Sunday, MCG @ 2:10pm
The injury ravaged Demons find themselves winless and languishing on the bottom of the ladder after five rounds, but welcome back skipper David Neitz from a knee injury. How big of an impact he will have on the match remains questionable.
Port are yet to beat Melbourne at the MCG, but expect them to break that trend with their superior run through the middle, coupled with the return to form of Warren Tredrea up forward enough to get them over the line. Port by 32 points.
RICHMOND v GEELONG - Sunday, Telstra Dome @ 5:10pm
Despite finding themselves winless after the first five rounds of the season, Richmond has been in all of their matches at some stage, with their lack of self belief and poor use of the football proving costly.
The Cats, who had been touted as Victoria's great white hope alongside the Western Bulldogs against the interstate invasion after wins over Carlton and Melbourne, have been bitterly disappointing in the past fortnight, especially against a more committed Kangaroos side at Skilled Stadium last Sunday.
If Geelong are going to play finals football this year this is a match they need to win, and their key talls up forward against an undersized Tigers backline should get them over the line. Cats by 25 points.
Posted by Tony Keen at 11:49 AM | Comments (0)